IS NOW A GOOD TIME TO BUY A NEW OR USED VEHICLE?

 


One question that I get the most from my friends outside of the automotive industry is, "When is the “best time” to buy a car? Of course, that's a complex question based on your personal or business needs, type of vehicle you want, available inventory and how the Federal Reserve sets interest rates. However, taking all that into account, some overarching themes do exist.


WHAT ARE THE BEST MONTHS TO BUY A NEW VEHICLE?

The answer to this depends on whether you want to buy a “just-released, brand-new model” or if you’d rather look for a deal on a make and model that’s at the end of its cycle. In the latter case, September and October are some of the best months to purchase since prices drop as the new supply of next year’s models are shipped to dealerships. As automakers deploy their models for the new year, dealers are eager to liquidate the older models to make room on their lots.

That makes September, especially around Labor Day, a good time to get a deal on an end-of-model-year new car. The older design might be missing some non-essential new features, but that often translates to a deeper price cut.

Some people wait until November and December to find even deeper discounts on vehicles as the pressure on dealers to get rid of older stock gets more intense and because the end of the year is an important season for dealerships and automakers. Dealerships want to modernize their model inventories as much as possible. They also want to end the year hitting and surpassing sales forecasts from manufacturers, which will ensure better allocations of inventory in the next year. At the same time, dealerships strive to meet or beat dealer ownership quotas for November and December. By doing so, they may be eligible for corporate year-end bonuses and perks.

However, there is a drawback since many other customers wait until the final months of the year to purchase their vehicles. This often translates to low stock of the most popular makes and models you might want. Therefore, shopping in December may only work well for you if you’re flexible and willing to buy a different vehicle than you initially wanted in order to obtain that optimal price you have waited for.


WHAT ARE THE BEST MONTHS TO BUY A USED VEHICLE?

If you’re in the market for a used vehicle, the start of a new calendar year is often a good time to shop. That’s because trade-ins from all the new car sales activity through the end of the year boosts inventory of available used automobiles.  Due to the laws of Supply and Demand, dealers will be motivated to price used cars attractively as they move to free up room on their lots.

That being said, many customers buy new cars and trade in their used vehicles during the fall holiday season for reasons I discussed above. And, since used trade-ins are not limited to the same make as the dealership’s new car business, you may find a great deal on a popular used vehicle make and model that this particular dealership doesn’t want to keep around. They may be willing to forego profit on that used vehicle that a same-make dealership wouldn’t pass up.


CURRENT TRENDING 

According to the Foley Automotive Update in the September 17, 2024 issue of The National Law Review, new vehicle monthly payments fell in August. They also reported that per Kelley Blue Book, the average new vehicle incentive packages were the highest in three years and new vehicle inventories are up by 40% year-over-year.

As for used vehicles, wholesale used vehicle prices decreased in the first half of September as stated in Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) declined 0.2% from August in the first 15 days of September, so the current measure is below trend for the early part of this month.

It's interesting to note that this trend hit all the major market automobile model segments (see below). They saw seasonally adjusted prices that remained lower year over year in the first half of September, and the declines have continued to be lower than earlier in the year. 

Additionally, as of Sept. 15, wholesale used car supply show an increase. Moreover, the initial September reporting  on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan increased 1.6% to 69.0, which was better than expected and the highest level since May. Expectations for inflation in one year declined to 2.7%, the lowest level since December 2020.  Consumers’ views of buying conditions for vehicles improved to the best level since June 2021 as views of vehicle prices improved. 


CONCLUSION

In conclusion, if you are in the market for, or might be in the market for a new or used vehicle next year, it would be advantageous to check out prices and inventories now, and throughout the end of the year. Remember that prices continue to fall through December, but so do inventories. That’s why it’s important to check during September and October. If you wait too long, that huge price cut may not matter because the vehicle you want man no longer be in stock.


Looking for a new Ford or quality used car at end-of-year great pricing? Contact me, Seth Banko at seth@castrocarguy.com or call 773.620.2868..

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